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Global
Crunch, Food Crisis May Increase Agonies Of Poor People
There are indications that the combination of the
current global crunch and food crisis may further widen
the already over-bloated population of the world poor.
Not only that the population may likely increase, but
the double threats may equally increase global
malnutrition of children of the poor world over.
A new analysis released on Monday in Maputo, Mozambique
by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
said the combined impact of low economic growth and
decreased investments in agriculture could cause major
increases in malnutrition in developing countries.
The analysis, which was made available to The Guardian
on Monday, also points out that the population of global
malnourished children may be swelled up by an addition
of about 16 million children by 2020.
The findings were released at the yearly general meeting
of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR).
The report highlights that many developing regions have
experienced high economic growth in recent years.
Between 2005 and 2007, developing countries in Asia grew
at a yearly average rate of nine per cent, while African
economies grew at six per cent. In 2008, however, with
the onset of the food and financial crises, that robust
growth has tapered off.
The Director General of IFPRI, Joachim von Braun, said:
"The current crises are likely to have strong and
long-lasting effects on emerging economies and the
people most in need. The unfolding global financial
crisis and economic slowdown have eased some pressure on
food prices, but they also significantly reduce the
income-earning opportunities for poor people. Even
before the world food crisis, the poorest of the poor
were struggling to survive. Poor people spend 50 to 70
per cent of their income on food and have little
capacity to adapt as prices rise and wages for unskilled
labour fail to adjust accordingly. The financial crunch
lowers the real wages of poor workers, and leads to
rising unemployment. The financial crunch has also
constrained the availability of capital at a time when
greater investment in agriculture is urgently needed."
He added that the IFPRI developed projections to track
changes in the production and consumption of major food
commodities between 2005 and 2020 if there is a world
recession that reduces economic growth between two to
three per cent (depending on the region).
In this scenario, he explained that the projections
assume that agricultural investment and productivity
also decline, in line with the reduced economic growth.
Compared to a baseline scenario in which high economic
growth continues and productivity and investments in
agriculture are maintained, IFPRI finds that the
cumulative effect of reduced growth, investment, and
productivity would lead to increases in the prices of
basic staples. By 2020, rice prices would rise by 13 per
cent, wheat by 15 per cent and maize by 27 per cent,
compared to the baseline scenario, and 16 million more
children would be malnourished.
Director of Environment and Production Technology at
IFPRI, Mark Rosegrant, stated: "When economic growth
declines, investment in agriculture is typically cut
back and that hurts production in the long-run. However,
if developing countries and investors can maintain
agricultural productivity and investments under a
recession, these dire consequences can be avoided. We
need more public spending in R&D, irrigation, and
productive services in developing country agriculture
now."
In an alternative scenario, the research finds that if
economic growth is reduced, but investment in
agriculture and productivity are maintained, grain would
be much more affordable, per capita calorie consumption
would be much higher, and there would be significantly
fewer malnourished children.
To von Braun, more effort is needed to successfully
resolve the food price crisis, build resistance to
future challenges, and reduce poverty and hunger.
He maintained that the IFPRI recommends three priorities
for action, which include promotion of pro-poor
agricultural growth, reduce market volatility, and
expand social safety nets and child nutrition programmes.
"Ultimately, our measure of success should not be
defined by the price of food, but by the provision of
adequate healthy food for all," he said.. .
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